ON AFGHANISTAN: The Facts and Timelines

President George W. Bush | Source: CFR

1. Former US President George W. Bush invaded Afghanistan in 2001 after Osama Bin Laden masterminded the 9/11 attack on the World Trade Center building in US. After intelligence findings pinpoint Afghanistan as the hiding place of Bib Laden and Al Qaeda leaders, Bush issues a stern warning to the Taliban government there to give them up or face the same fate as them. The Taliban would not give in. So, he invades Afghanistan, and in conjunction with the UK, launches airstrikes against the Taliban. So, the war started. 

2. Since then, a mission that was supposed to take a few months dragged on till the end of his presidency in 2008. And Obama stepped in with a promise to end America's involvement in the war, but failed and changed his mind. Instead, he mobilized more troops into Afghanistan.

3. Initially, Obama dramatically increased the U.S. presence in Afghanistan, from a little over 30,000 to more than 100,000 troops at the peak in 2011. The plan was to cripple the Taliban, train the Afghan military, stabilize government and then withdraw the U.S. forces by the time Obama's second term ended. But things changed. 

4. He initially started reducing the number of troops in Afghanistan, but things changed. After Obama withdrew US troops from Iraq at the end of 2011, fighting resumed there again, and ISIS emerged as a potent force. So, fearing that the same thing would happen if he completely pulled out of Afghanistan, he decided to end combat operations in there and focus on training the Afghan military.

5. At the end of 2014, Obama announced an end to US combat operations, and went ahead to reduce the number of troops to about 8,400 to focus on training the Afghan military. The assessment was that the Afghan forces weren't competent enough to stop the Taliban yet.

President Barack Obama | Source: CFR

6. But, by mid-2015, Obama and his national security team had acknowledged that they could no longer realistically transform Afghanistan into a semblance of a democracy able to defend itself. “We’re no longer in nation-building mode.”, he told his team, according to a New York Times report. A few weeks later, Obama halted the withdrawal of troops, and announced that he would leave thousands of American troops in the country indefinitely.

7. In January 2017, Obama hands over to Trump 8,400 troops in Afghanistan, with no plan for a possible de-escalation of the conflict, and amidst a potent ISIS operating with support from the Taliban which had grown so strong. Trump with a promise to end "needless US wars" around the world, especially in Afghanistan. 

8. Trump takes over with a big obsession: dealing ruthlessly with ISIS and Al Queda (both of whom were being supported by the Taliban). So, he gives US military general tactical decision-making authority. By mid-2017, the US military drops "the mother of all bombs" on ISIS militants in Nangarhar Province of Afghanistan, US marines are deployed to Afghanistan's Helmand province where security situation was so badly broken, and by the end of the year, they had been largely successful, according to an LA Times report. By the end of 2017, Trumlp had increased US troops to about 15,000.

9. In an address he gave to troops in August 2017, Trump (just like his predecessor Obama) announced he had changed his mind about doing an outright withdrawal from Afghanistan, saying that though original instinct was to pull out, he would instead press ahead with an open-ended military commitment to prevent the emergence of "a vacuum for terrorists". He said decision on withdrawal would be based on" conditions on the ground", and also rejected the idea of a possible political settlement with the Taliban.

11. The Taliban grew stronger and bolder, carrying out major suicide attacks in Kabul that killed upto 115 people as violence escalated. Parts of the extra troops Trump deployed were sent to rural Afghanistan to advise Afghan brigades and launch airstrikes aimed at decimating the Taliban's finances. Trump also cut off security assistance to Pakistan (a neighbor to Afghanistan), claiming that they were hypocritical and were secretly providing support to the Taliban.

President Donal Trump

12. But, by the ending of 2018, the Trump administration had started holding settlement talks with the Taliban. Trump wanted to end the war and remove US troops from Afghanistan, but with assurances and structures in place that ensure there will be no terrorist threat against the US from Afghanistan. By 2019, the negotiations with the Taliban were now on top gear, and centered on the US withdrawing its troops in exchange for the Taliban pledging to block international terrorist groups from operating on Afghan soil.

13. In September 2019, barely a week after an "agreement in principle" was announced by the US top negotiator, Trump breaks off the peace talks and cancels a scheduled meeting between the Afghan President and Taliban leader after a US soldier was killed in a Taliban attack. However, the peace talks later continued.

14. In February 2020, the US and the Taliban sign an agreement. The agreement was titled "Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan". It involved three things mainly: A guarantee from the Taliban that Afghanistan areas under their control will not be used by Al Qaeda and others for terrorist activities; secondly, US and NATO agree to withdraw all troops within 14 months if the Taliban keeps their end of the deal; and thirdly, the Taliban and Afghan government were to start negotiations in the next month towards achieving peace in their country.

15. In March 2020, the Trump administration withdraws the first batch of troops since the deal was signed. But there's a snag: Afghan President says the Taliban must meet its own government's conditions before the peace talks can commence, and even threatens a prisoner exchange deal which was part of the earlier US-Taliban agreement. This disagreement continues over months. But, by June 2020, the US had already withdrawn almost half of its troops, and had only 8,600 remaining there. 

16. In July 2020, following reports that the Taliban participated in an operation to target US troops, US Congress passed an amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act, setting new conditions to be met before President Trump can continue withdrawing troops from Afghanistan.

17. In August 2020, the Trump administration further withdrew more troops, and those left were about 4,500. Meanwhile, on the campaign trail, Joe Biden signaled support for the troops withdrawal, but left room for the possibility that the US would be "open to maintaining a small number of troops in the country whose mission would focus solely on counterterrorism operations."

18. In September 2020, after months of delay, Afghan-Taliban peace talks begin after the Afghan government releases 5,000 Taliban prisoners as part of the earlier US-Taliban deal. During the negotiations, the government pushes for a cease-fire, while the Taliban reiterates its call for the country to be governed through an Islamic system.

19. In November 2020, after the election, the Trump administration announced it would further reduce the troops level to 2,500 by 15th January, 2021, just before the end of Trump's term in office. They said the remaining troops in Afghanistan would defend American diplomats, the American embassy and other agencies of the US government doing important work in Afghanistan, enable allies of the United States to do their work in Afghanistan and deter foes of America in Afghanistan. Critics (including NATO chief and some American politicians) warned that leaving too soon or JN an uncoordinated manner could result in a huge mess that could compromise American national security and interests.

President Joe Biden | Source: CFR

20. On April 14, 2021, President Biden announces that the United States will not meet the deadline set under the U.S.-Taliban agreement to withdraw all troops by May 1 and instead releases a plan for a full withdrawal by September 11, 2021. Meanwhile, the Afghan-Taliban peace talks have been going on. But, the Taliban then announces that it will not participate in “any conference” on Afghanistan’s future until all foreign troops leave.

21. In July 2021, Germany, Italy and US troops were all withdrawn from Afghanistan. And Afghan officials complained that the Americans had left the Bagram Airfield without notifying the new Afghan commander until more than two hours after abandoning the base. As a result, the base was ransacked by looters before they could take control of the airfield. Only about 650 US troops remained in Afghanistan, tasked with protecting the airport and embassy.

22. On July 8th, President Biden announced August 31st would mark the official end of the war in Afghanistan. But on July 21st, the US launched overnight airstrikes against the Taliban, to support Afghan forces in the ground. On the next day, the US House of Representatives passed the Allies Act, a bill that would improve and provide visas for Afghan interpreters who worked for American personnel during the war.

23. By August 12th, within just days, the Taliban had advanced and taken 18 out of 34 Afghanistan provinces. In some of them, they didn't even have to fight their way in. They just walked in to processions of surrender on the street. In the face of this new reality of a swift Taliban takeover, the Biden Administration announces it will be sending 3,000 troops back into Afghanistan, to evacuate embassy staff and other US nationals. But by the time the Taliban took more ground in August 14th, the US said it would now send 5,000 troops for the same purpose. 

24. On August 15th, the Taliban seized Kabul and the presidential Palace after Afghan President Ashraf Ghani fled the country for Tajikistan. On the same day, the Biden Administration announced it was sending an additional 1,000 troops, bringing the total number of soldiers stationed in Afghanistan to 6,000. And on August 16th, the Biden Administration again announced the deployment of another 1,000 troops, bringing the total number of US troops currently stationed there to 7,000.

25. The swift advancement of the Taliban in taking territories, the absence of a fighting-will amongst the Afghan forces in the face of it, and the seemingly poor logistics planning on the part of the American government culminated in an embarrassing frenzy, as the Taliban took power, the US resources were exposed, and the Afghan military was missing in action.

Sources: The New York Times, Los Angeles Times, and Council on Foreign Relations

Paul Anunaso is a civil/structural engineer based in Lagos, Nigeria. He is also the Editor of The Paul Anunaso Blog, and can be reached at anunaso.cp@gmail.com