US Election 2020 Analysis: Democrats didn't get the blue wave this year

The presidential elections of 2020 are more consequential than the elections of 2016. Why? The Census.

I'll explain. 

Every 10 years, America conducts a census. The census results determine the number of seats in the House of Congress every state gets. For example, California has 55 electoral seats because she has a large population. This is why the State of California has 55 electoral college votes in the presidential electoral college map. 

But wait, there is more. 

Every 10 years, states in the US draw up what should be simple congressional maps of wards, district and countries that define the congressional map in their state. However, this simple procedure has led to what is now called “Gerrymandering”, which is the process of drawing an electoral map to include your supporters in your zone and carve out your opponents to other zones. 

Gerrymandering is a way to blunt the powerful force of population of the opposing party: no matter how many votes they have, they cannot vote in your zone. Let me use a local example.

Assume the PDP won all the Kano State House of Assembly and Governor seats in 2020. They will then, with the Governor, redraw the congressional map in Kano. They could in theory “gerrymander” the map of Kano and give Sabon Gari a Senatorial zone, 3 House Seats, this means Sabon Gari will have a guaranteed Senator and 3 House members every election cycle that vote PDP, in APC controlled Kano. This is an extreme example of what happens in America. 

Therefore, you see Trump losing with votes in a state, but in same state, Republican Senators and House members get reelected: you cannot Gerrymander the Presidency.

Point made?

After elections, states in America in which the Congress and Governorship houses are controlled by one party will simply cut away areas they don't have supporters and lump away to the opposing party and add areas where they are strong to their maps. The consequence of this are seats in Illinois and Utah that can NEVER flip, because there are neither Republican nor Democrat voters in those districts.

So, in a Census year, the Presidential election is important, but the Governorship and State House seats are so much more important because they lock-in congressional maps for 10 years: that's five elections folks…5!!!

So, let us look at the US after this 2020 elections:

The Republican party now holds House majority in:

Texas

Iowa

Pennsylvania (yes)

Michigan (yes)

North Carolina

Florida

Ohio

Arizona

Georgia

Alaska

Indiana

Let me make it clearer, the GOP has complete control in these states.

Governor Races 2020

Out of a total of 11 governorship races in 2020, the GOP won 9, while Democrats won 3 only (in Delaware, Washington and North Carolina) according to Fox News reports of the election results. 

Senate Races 2020

The GOP has picked up a total of 20 seats, while the Democrats have picked up 13 seats. (Source: Fox News) 

Two (2) senate seats in Georgia currently held by the GOP are up for a run-off in January. For now, the GOP is in the lead to retain control of the Senate with 50 seats (while the Democrats have 48), and if they win back those two Georgia seats, they will solidify their control over the upper chamber of congress. 

House Races 2020

Out of the 435 House seats, the Democrats have now won 218 (which means that they'll retain control of the House), while the GOP have won 202 seats. (Source: Fox News) 

According to The Center Square, "Republicans in Congress won every incumbent seat and 28 out of 29 competitive seats identified by the New York Times’ Nate Silver." 

House Republicans are expected to win up to 13 new seats, and have already flipped 1 seat in Southern California. 

State Races 2020 

In summary, The Republican Party will be able to redraw congressional maps in a total of 181 districts, while the Democrats will control 76 maps. So much for the much touted "blue wave". 

In the following states, the GOP controls the House of Legislature but with Democrat Governor:

Wisconsin

Michigan

Pennsylvania

The Democrats needed a blue wave to ensure they could control maps in Texas and Florida; that’s why you saw that push to get Texas. But, the GOP now hold in 21 states complete control of the Senate, House and Governor Houses; the democrats control 15 in contrast. 

Let me compare the two parties:

State Houses: GOP holds 29, Dems hold 19. 

Legislative Chambers: GOP hold 59, Dems hold 39. 

Control of all Political Power in States, i.e. Senate, House, and Governor: GOP have 21, Dems 15. 

The Democrat party did not win any new Governor's seat or House, but lost seats in Florida and North Carolina.

The Democrat party is celebrating the White House and they should, but the occupant of the White House is facing a Democrat-controlled House with a margin of votes less than 10 and  GOP Senate: those tax hikes that were promised? packing the Supreme Court? Green New Deal? That will have to be passed through the lens of GOP Senate.

Let me be clear, the market had projected a Biden economy based on a Democrat blue wave, that will see tax rates go up and renewables replace fossil fuels, leading to a falling Dollar. That won’t happen in a sweeping fashion for the next two years. 

So, in 2 years, do not express surprise that the left-wing policies have not been passed. Do not call Biden a failure; he is just a President.

This article was first written by Kalu Aja and published via his official Facebook page (@KaluAja). He is a small government advocate, economic analyst and fiscal conservative. This edition of the article was prepared by Chukwubuikem Paul Anunaso, the editor of The Paul Anunaso Blog.