Two (2) Things Iran can Negotiate With

The conflict between Iran and the United States of America is the single most important international issue of today. Why? You may ask. Well, because of its significant impact on Middle East affairs and potential effect on the global economy.

The Middle East is important to the world for two main reasons: first, the region produces about one-third of the world's oil. Saudi Arabia produces the highest (12.3 million barrels per day), followed by Iran's 4.7 million barrels per day, Iraq's 4.6 million barrels per day and the UAE's 3.9 million barrels per day. Kuwait and Qatar also produce 3.0 and 1.9 million barrels per day respectively too. These and some others account for about 35% of oil trade in the world - a significant chunk. And much of this trade is carried out via cargo ships that transport the oil through the strait of hormuz.

It is needless to say that the price of oil in the world can rise or fall based on what happens in the middle east. The geographical location of Iran with respect to the strait of hormuz places them at a vantaged position to control it if they will. For example, if they were to block it, world oil supply could significantly sink by as much as 35%, causing global oil prices to be at risk of rising astronomically. Even if this should happen for a brief period, the effect it would have on the global economy could ring very loud.

The second reason is, because of the war against terrorism. The United States and it's allies in the region have successfully destroyed ISIS by completely destroying their physical structures within the middle east, recovering all territories previously taken by the terrorist organisation, as well as killing their leader, Al-Bagdadi, and his second-in-command. The focus of the US and its allies now is to go after all the smaller state-sponsored militia/terrorist networks within the middle east region, who though not as sophisticated as ISIS was, constitute a huge threat to the stability of the region as well as the security of US allies within the region (especially Israel and Saudi Arabia).

Iran is well known as the largest state-sponsor of terrorism which targets the two most important US allies in the middle east.

The conflicts in the middle east are generally centered around 4 main countries: Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Lebanon. All 4 countries are major allies of Iran. According to a report by the International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS), the total cost to the Iranian economy of its activities in Syria, Iraq and Yemen is $16bn (£12bn), while Lebanese Hezbollah receives $700m annually from Iran. Through its extraterritorial al-Quds force, Iran has continued to bolster its capabilities through enlistment of various militia – amounting to 200,000 fighters – and engaging in a “grey zone” of conflict that maintains hostilities below the threshold of state-on-state warfare.

Iran doesn't even pretend about her activities anymore. For example, just after the bombing of Saudi Arabia's oil facility in September 2019 by Iran, Ahmad Alamolhoda, a representative of Iran's Supreme Leader, said “The Iran of today does not have the geographical constraints of the past. Today, Iran is also the Popular Mobilisation Forces of Iraq, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Ansarullah in Yemen, Syria’s National Front, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hamas. All of these have come to represent Iran and therefore Iran is no longer just us. The sayyid of the resistance [Hezbollah secretary general, Hassan Nasrallah] declared that the region’s resistance has one leader and that leader is the supreme leader of the Islamic Revolution of Iran.”

Through Hezbollah, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hamas, Iran continues to threaten the continued existence of the state of Israel in their openly avowed goal to wipe out the tiny nation from the map. By providing rockets, anti-tank and missile inventory, and 25,000 reservists to Hezbollah, Iran has made the group a strong force of its own.

Also, through the Ansarullah, Iran continues to fuel conflicts in its proxy battle of dominance with Saudi Arabia in the war-torn country of Yemen. The larger goal is to wrestle Middle East dominance from Saudi Arabia. While Iran consists of mostly Shia Muslims, Saudi Arabia is dominated by Sunni Muslims. In almost every mideast nation where there is a conflict today, the conflict is between these two groups, the Shia and the Sunnis.

In Iraq, Tehran uses insurgents, the Popular Mobilisation Forces of Iraq, to attack the US army and to influence Iraq's domestic politics. Iran considers the continued presence of the US in Iraq a threat to Iran's national security. While it is quite necessary that the US leaves Iraq, one cannot help but wonder how expedient that would be, especially what a consequential Iranian dominance would make of the country in the wake of a US departure. Though it is much smaller in size, Iraq has a lot of oil, almost as much as Iran has.

It is clear that two (2) great assets Iran currently has in the middle east are its vast network of state-sponsored multinational militias scattered all over conflict zones within the middle east (which it controls from Tehran through its al-Quds force), and it's capacity to hurt the global economy (especially in the west) if it were to block the strait of hormuz (even if it were for a short period of time). Even though Iran should know that doing this would certainly invite increased western presence and involvement in Middle-Eastern affairs, if tensions continue to rise and conflicts go unabated, Iran might see this as a viable option someday.

These two reasons are the main reasons why the US continues to be involved in the Middle-Eastern conflicts. It is therefore beholden to Tehran to use them as potential bargaining chips in a new deal with the United States. Already, the US is announcing more economic sanctions on Iran in its bid to pressure Tehran into making a new deal.

UK Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, in a recent telephone call with the Iranian Prime Minister, Hassan Rouhani, reiterated his commitment to the existing Iran nuclear deal. However, some are now of the opinion that Europe should get out of the deal, and join the US in pressuring Iran to make a new deal in which a key demand (apart from the discontinuation of nuclear enrichment by Iran) would be that Iran withdraws forthwith it's state sponsorship of multinational militia groups within the middle east. I tend to support this opinion.